Living at the University of Delaware, I have the fortunate opportunity to be just 1.5 miles from Maryland; if I had the initiative I could walk the distance. This is not to say however, that a thin line less than two miles away separates me from the political brawl that is occurring in that state. Maryland is one of the two states where Democrats are vulnerable and shocks many political observers.

While listening to the radio a week ago, I came across an analysis of the Maryland senate race. It fascinated me that a state with a soul that is so inherently liberal can fall to a Republican senate challenger. Remember that Cardin is Democrat in a liberal state and is popular. By all counts, Maryland is not a swing state- but Steele is making it so. What kind of strategy is he implementing?

Cardin’s campaign is making every attempt to paint Steele as a follower of the president. His campaign commercials repeatedly show him in an embrace or shaking hands. This is not really Steele. The only reason why the Republicans have been successful in Maryland is because they have run a very moderate campaign where Steele really distances himself from the president and his party. Steele, opposite Ford in Tennessee, is a fiscal conservative with liberal social values. He is in favor of gay marriage and pro choice, and like his opponent- against the War in Iraq. I suppose it’s interesting then that Maryland voters don’t have much of a choice when they go to the polls this November (both candidates are anti-war).

When listening to that radio show they aired one strategist who spoke with Steele at a cocktail party. Steele told this person (and I paraphrase) “the one thing he regrets is being a Republican in this race.” It fascinates me that we have such an interesting race in Maryland, and voters have the opportunity to choose between liberal Cardin and libertarian Steele. If elected, Steele will be the second African-American in the US Senate (next to US Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)) As much as I want to see the Democrats take back the Senate, and as much as I do support Cardin in his reelection bid, Steele isn’t a bad choice for Maryland either. Unfortunately for Steele, polls are not reassuring as the latest Rasmussen poll of October 26 puts Cardin at 52% and Steele at 43%.

Republican incumbent Conrad Burns has been labeled the second most vulnerable senator in Congress (next to Santorum). However, if polling is any indication of a candidate’s performance, Burns has been performing much better than previously thought. Just a few weeks ago polls across Montana indicated that Burns trailed Democratic challenger Jon Tester by 10 points. Now, a recent Rasmussen poll of October 26 puts Burns trailing only 4 points 47% to 51%.

No Democrat or Republican thought Montana would be in play, but it is. Traditionally, we’ve often considered it to be part of the “grand ol’conservative west” because of its rugged lifestyle and rural pastures. Demographically, Democrats have preformed terribly in rural areas, which comes to many as a surprise that Montana is actually a swing state. It was only Bill Clinton who could last pull off a victory here in 1996 (but remember that Clinton beat Dole by a large margin). So what Democrat has the moxy to swing Montana? Jon Tester.

Jon Tester is the current President of the Montana State Senate. Born in Big Sandy, Montana, he earned his Bachelor’s Degree in music from the University of Great Falls. Many distinguish Tester from his haircut, or missing three fingers and his image conjures that of the tough woodsman.

Tester’s campaign in Montana has been successful firstly just because of that image. When you look at Tester you think of a person who is all but a U.S. Senator, and his campaign has even made a slogan of it, “Shouldn’t the Senate look a little bit more like Montana?” Secondly, he has run a common sense campaign painting Burns as “out of touch with Montana.” This is poison; Montana preserves a whole culture that is separate from the country. It is isolated in many regards, explains Governor Brian Schweitzer on CNN, “We don’t bring big name politicians up here namely because they don’t understand Montana and Montana doesn’t understand them.” So it is easy to see how Tester’s campaign can be so successful when Burns was connected with the Abramoff Scandal (Burns did after all take Abramoff’s money).

Finally, Tester is successful because of his positions. Like other Democrats in this election cycle, he is taking more mainstream views, and reconciling his beliefs with those of Montanans. For abortion, Tester is pro-choice but his campaign website states that it should be kept, “legal, safe and rare.” He is a proponent of alternative energy, a critic of Iraq, and against the Bush Administration. It will be interesting to see if Burns can catch up more in the coming week- but given the momentum of Tester’s campaign, I definitely see Burns retiring to his Helena ranch for a long winter.

This will without a doubt be a close race. Current projections put Tennessee in Republican Bob Corker’s column however his lead is slim (within the margin of error in fact). A current Rasmussen poll puts Corker at 47% and Ford at 45%. Unfortunately, the tricky part about polling is that you never know which poll is most accurate; some have Ford ahead by as much as 9 points, others have Corker demonstrating the same lead. The brunt of these polling results has been in the middle, with Ford and Corker between 3 to 5 percent of one another. Indeed, Tennessee is actually in play for the Democrats, and some are asking, “How?”

First consider the State of Tennessee and than the candidates’ stances on the issues. Corker is a traditional conservative with basic values that match Tennessee’s conservative culture. Likewise, Ford is a conservative Democrat with conservative social positions and liberal economic ones. It has only been through his centrist campaign that he has been able to appeal to Tennessee voters (lets admit that a traditional liberal couldn’t otherwise win in Tennessee). I was watching CNN the other night and Ford appeared on the Situation Room to defend his campaign. While listening to him I wouldn’t have otherwise known he was a Democrat had the little “(D)” not appeared on the bottom of the screen. Ford discussed how he uses his faith to guide his personal beliefs and morals. As a result, he’s against gay marriage, euthanasia and “after witnessing something several years ago” partial birth/late term abortion. He even went as far to say he was a “follower of Jesus”; something that would be shunned in any liberal culture but is respected in Tennessee.

I do wonder how he would be as a U.S. Senator? How would a Democrat from a fiercely Republican state vote on the Senate floor? I mean if the Democrats do regain control of both houses, would they be able to count on Ford’s vote when pushing their agenda? It’s an interesting question- and it further fascinates me that just six years ago he contested Nancy Pelosi for the House Democratic Minority position. I suppose he is loyal to his party, and if anything he would be a centrist, independent voice in the U.S. Senate

Interestingly, Corker is refusing to debate him. In a Corker press conference just a few weeks ago Ford showed up and challenged his opponent to a debate. Many in Tennessee criticized him for “unstatesman-like” activity, but you know what, he has balls and I praise him for doing something so gutsy. It is stupid for Corker’s campaign not to agree to a debate; what do they want to accomplish? Deny the voter the opportunity to hear two people in a forum of open ideas? Not draw the distinctions between the two candidates? Perhaps Corker’s campaign is compensating for Corker being weak on the issues. After all, it doesn’t even make strategic sense. In Pennsylvania, Casey isn’t debating Santorum because Casey has nothing to gain (he’s up 9-15%). Corker is neck and neck- and in an election you should be willing to do anything to get elected. How dare the Republicans pounce on Ford’s character? How dare they distract voters from the issues? Tennessee ladies and gentleman: a state where Corker wants to spew smack, and Ford wants to talk to issues.

I’ll be blunt- Santorum is screwed. Democratic challenger Bob Casey has run an excellent campaign in Pennsylvania, but he didn’t have to do much. The main reason why Santorum is getting raped this November is because his values have grown out of touch with the Pennsylvania voter. Like Ohio, Pennsylvania has been a moderate state- balancing the Democratic-dominance of Philadelphia and Pittsburg and the Republican dominance of the suburban and rural areas. Combined, they form a state that has been so politically mixed that it has caused some surprises and upsets in elections, and has forced its politicians to be more moderate in their stance.

In 2004 New York Senator Hillary Clinton wrote a book entitled, “It Takes a Village.” In her book, she detailed what the federal government ought to be doing to enable communities to battle problems on a local level. Clinton’s book had many liberal undertones- and Rick Santorum responded by writing his book, “It Takes a Family” to disagree with and (in some cases) parody Clinton’s opinion. In his book, he discussed several moral issues affecting society today and how they affect the moral fiber of this country. Outside of his book, Santorum has also condemned homosexuality, abortion and stem cell research on the Senate floor, and justifies these positions with his faith. Now in 2006, he is unsuccessfully trying to battle the image of being “out of touch” with the Pennsylvania voter- but Casey has not allowed him to escape his own voting record. Santorum is being labeled as a follower of George W. Bush, and hammered in an election cycle where the president is unpopular. To counter these accusations, Santorum has appeared on television claiming that he has “voted with Democrats” and even “cosponsored a bill with Sen. Hillary Clinton.” Despite his attempt to repaint himself in a new light, Pennsylvania voters will undoubtedly evict him as the latest Rasmussen poll taken on Oct. 26 puts Santorum at a meager 41%, as opposed to Casey’s 51%. Perhaps Santorum will reevaluate the meaning of serving a constituency with his free time November 8th.

The New Jersey Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican challenger Tom Kean is only one of two states where the Democrats are vulnerable. In a state where you must have a wealth of money to run, Kean and Menendez have bought television outlets in both Philadelphia and New York. New Jersey has long been an unpredictable state, and the latest poll conducted by RT Strategies on October 26 found both parties neck and neck at 42%. There is an abundance of undecided voters however, and given that this is a long held blue state, I anticipate the democrats to hold on.

Over the next week I intend to highlight the eight races that will determine the control of the U.S. Senate. Many polling agencies and media outlets have already predicted the House of Representatives to fall to the Democrats in 2006, but the Senate is currently in limbo. At a press conference in the Rose Garden last week, President Bush expressed his unwavering belief that the Republicans will hold on to everything in November, but most people in the media wrote that off as blind support for his party. The reality is, the Republicans will be unable to hold onto the House of Representatives, and this is supported by numerous polls across the nation that show Democrats ahead of Republicans on every issue including national security. Falling job approval has also been the cause of the Democratic lead this November, and has resulted in many Republicans distancing themselves from the president. An ongoing War in Iraq, the lack of an exit strategy and the uncertainty of Mid-East oil have seemingly overshadowed an economic boom this past week that would otherwise be a tremendous advantage to the Republicans. Traditionally, Democrats have preformed terribly on social issues such as abortion, gay rights and euthanasia at the polls, but this election cycle they have an advantage as stem cell research is popularized and supported by the mainstream voter. As a result, many Democratic congressional races are experiencing great success, and we are left to wonder if the Democrats can pick up the seats to win the Senate. These eight races encompass states where Democrats (Maryland and New Jersey) and Republicans are vulnerable (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee and Montana).

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- Paul