Why Democrats should be Proud: Turnout & Enthusiasm
This year, turnout is unprecedented. Record numbers of people are involved in the Democratic primaries and turnout has consistently been two to three times that of the Republicans. In the swing state of Ohio, precincts saw ballot shortages and experienced extremely long lines. In Texas, the collective vote of both Obama and Clinton were about one million votes higher than John Kerry’s total in 2004. And in red states across America, Democratic turnout consistently trumps Republicans, creating some speculation that the state of Virginia might actually be in play.
With a resurgence of African Americans, youth and independent voters, as well as an unprecedented level of traditional Democrats turning out, it is inconceivable that the Dems could lose in 2008.
Why Democrats Should Worry: Hillary Rodham Clinton
Hillary Clinton won last night in terms of momentum, but she will ultimately lose the night in delegates. Rhode Island and Vermont will cancel each other out, and Clinton will net approximately 12 delegates out of Ohio. Because the Texas popular vote was so close and Obama won the inner cities where the most delegates are apportioned, he will win just enough to tie Clinton in the primary portion of the ‘Texas Tw0-Step.’ BUT Clinton’s lead will not hold up: Friday or Saturday the Texas Democratic party will release caucus totals, where Obama is expected to do exceeding well. 67 delegates are awarded by the Texas caucus, about 1/3 of the Texas Democratic delegation. The result, a net for Obama.
This puts Clinton in a tough spot mathematically. She has snapped his momentum but she will still need to win about 70% of the remaining delegates to win the nom. Even if both candidates were to win every single delegate awarded by the 16 remaining states, neither would reach the magic number of 2025.
Hillary will be behind by between 130-160 delegates (depending on your source). Her only way to victory remains through a ’smoke-filled room.’ She can only win the nomination by carrying superdelegates, and if the superdelegates decide this nomination, it will be hell at the DNC in Dever. There WILL be a riot. And I honestly don’t see myself voting for Clinton if there is any appearence of a backroom deal with party elite.
But Hillary’s campaign will not see the mathematical reality. They never will. She has too big an ego and the media thinks this is too good of a horse race to continually remind her that it is near impossible to win the nom without shady dealings.
So what we are about to witness is 7 weeks of hell until Pennsylvania (Apr. 22). I predict that Clinton will spend the next 3 weeks running positive TV ads in the 6 major media markets in the state, and then toward week 4, go increasingly negative. By the time it is Apr. 22 in PA, she will not only have thrown the ‘kitchen sink’ at Obama, but the entire kitchen. She will attack him on all his vulnerabilities–experience, foreign policy credentials, leadership qualities– and ultimately, only to her peril, lose us the election in 2008. She won’t win the 70% necessary for the nom, and I pray to God she won’t be nominated by shady dealings. So I only see her campaign as seeking to bloody up our eventual nominee, and expend valuable financial resources fighting an expensive primary campaign.
Republicans, sit back and enjoy. Hillary Clinton may be your best friend.
