Hillary, it’s over…
Posted by Paul on March 22, 2008
No one wants to say it, but it’s true.
Two interesting articles came out of the Politico and Time Magazine today.
Time outlines 14 realities Hillary Clinton needs to face up to, here’s a taste:
1. She can’t win the nomination without overturning the will of the elected delegates, which will alienate many Democrats.
2. She can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle — after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.
3. Catching up in the popular vote is not out of the question — but without re-votes in Florida and Michigan it will be almost as impossible as catching up in elected delegates.
4. Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don’t think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile.
5. Obama’s skilled, close-knit staff can do things like silently kill re-votes in Florida and Michigan and not pay a political price.
And Politico sheds light on the spell the Clinton campaign has cast on the national media over her chances to actually win the Democratic nomination.
Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else. People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.
As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.
Ultimately, the questions raised by Politico make you think: had Obama been placed in the same circumstances of Hillary Clinton, wouldn’t the national media be saying, All right Barack, it’s over!
The reality is, someone needs to tap Hillary on the shoulder and have an awkward conversation with her. The math just doesn’t add up; her pathway to the nomination is one that disinfranchizes millions of voters and depends on party elite to overturn the popular will of the people. It won’t happen, and the longer we drag this process out, the more we hurt the inevitable Democratic nominee.
Despite Obama’s bad press this week, and he did have a bad week, the news today of Bill Richardson’s endorsement surely is an upset to the Clinton campaign.
And a report out of the Huffington Post: Obama has $30 million in the bank, compared with Hillary’s $3 million.
New Federal Election Commission reports show Obama raised at a clip of nearly $2 million a day in February, an open spigot of money that left him with $30 million in the bank for March.
Clinton had her best fundraising month as well, at $34.5 million. But counting her debts to vendors she ended with a net $3 million. And that’s not factoring the $5 million she lent her campaign and has not paid back.
I think the superdelegates and the popular will are behind Sen. Obama. Hillary needs to come back to Earth, face reality, and drop out. For the good of the party, and for the good of our nominee in the fall.
