Could this be true? In a press conference she had with reporters a week ago, CBS reports:

“I think you’ll be able to imagine many things Senator McCain will be able to say,” she said. “He’s never been the president, but he will put forth his lifetime of experience. I will put forth my lifetime of experience. Senator Obama will put forth a speech he made in 2002.” Clinton was referring to Obama’s anti-war speech he delivered in Chicago before entering the United States Senate.

But what if Obama wins the nomination? She’d be in an awkward position; she is explicitly, in no uncertain terms, saying Obama only offers a speech and only her and Senator McCain offer real experience.

First of all, the merits of her “experience” are questionable. But beyond that I think this conversation needs to stay civil. I am so disappointed that this campaign has devolved into ‘kitchen sink’ mudslinging. Worse, I hate how we have two excellent Democratic candidates, and one is saying essentially that the Republican is more merited to be president than her viable primary challenger. Who would Hillary vote for if she loses? McCain?

I’ll let Keith Olberman express my frustration. There were more developments to this story yesterday that Keith outlines. Basically, Clinton held a press conference and once again emphasized her and John McCain’s national security credentials.

In the first national poll of presidential preferences, SurveyUSA asked 30,000 respondents in all 50 states, if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

The Results:
Both Democrats Beat John McCain
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton 276
John McCain 262

States Democrats Pick Up:
West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida

States Democrats Lose:
Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire

View Clinton/McCain Electoral Map
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Barack Obama 280
John McCain 258

States Democrats Pick Up:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia

States Democrats Lose:
Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey

View Obama/McCain Electoral Map

I’m always skeptical of national polls, but it’s interesting that this is the first conducted in all 50 states for the general election.

Obama has two enemies: Hillary Clinton and John McCain. For Obama to be victorious in New Hampshire he must win over enough Democrats to beat Hillary Clinton, and enough independents to beat John McCain. Remember that New Hampshire is notoriously independent (45%).

Winning Democrats:
Target: Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama could win the Democratic vote in New Hampshire. Many polls have him pulling even with Clinton. Lets look an ARG poll out today:

American Research Group, Jan. 5., 2008
Among NH Democrats:
Clinton 34%
Obama 32%

Rasmussen Reports gives Sen. Obama a 65% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary. Many polls have him tied with Hillary among Democrats. A CNN/WMUR poll shows 60% of New Hampshire independents and Democrats planning to vote in the Democratic primary see Obama as an agent of change. Rasmussen’s poll shows Obama leading in the quality of electability, and what we’ve seen from Iowa is a strong urgency to vote against the establishment.

With Clinton’s aura of inevitability vanished, with her electability argument diminished, and with Obama’s message of change, I think it’s very possible for him to win New Hampshire. Clinton is currently struggling to define her message in the shadow of a devastating loss.

TIME magazine has a great piece on the Clinton Campaign’s internal turmoil.

Winning Independents:
Target: John McCain

Reports the Washington Post:

In virtually every demographic category where Obama found his greatest strength in Iowa, New Hampshire’s electorate has at least as many or more of those voters, based on a comparison of the entrance polls from Thursday’s caucuses in Iowa and from the 2004 Democratic primary in Hampshire.

Take independents. They constituted 20 percent of the caucus electorate in Iowa on Thursday, but four years ago in New Hampshire they constituted nearly half (48 percent) of the Democratic electorate.

Obama is competing with McCain for that independent vote. In Iowa, he won 51% of the Iowa independent vote.

Reports the New York Times:

Polls here say that almost two-thirds of these voters are leaning Democratic, making them particularly critical to Mr. Obama’s effort to win a second contest in a row. Meanwhile, Mr. McCain is trying to tap into this pool of voters to edge out former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

I think that Obama’s fresh appeal, that appeal to change, will give him more support than McCain in New Hampshire among independents.

New Polls
American Research Group, Jan. 5, 2008
Obama 38%
Clinton 26%

Concord Monitor, Jan. 5, 2008
Obama 34%
Clinton 33%

CNN/WMUR, Jan. 5, 2008
Obama 33%
Clinton 33%

Rasmussen Reports, Jan. 5, 2008
Obama 37%
Clinton 27%