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Archive for the 'February 5th' Category


Super Tuesday Reflections

Posted by Paul on March 8, 2008

Reflecting back, Super Tuesday was amazing. I got to spend the day working to get out the vote at the University of Delaware, and in the end, Obama won the state.

Well, I found a couple awesome videos that I want to post. Two states that I care about–Delaware & Illinois–projected by NBC News in the Obama column. Great stuff, lots of meaning to me at least : )

Obama wins Delaware!

Obama wins Illinois!

Posted in Barack Obama, Delaware, February 5th, Illinois | No Comments »

Post Feb. 5, the Math is Against Clinton

Posted by Paul on February 13, 2008

First Read NBC News: The statistical front-runner: No matter how one slices the election results from last night, there’s no denying that Obama is the statistical front-runner. He’s got a 100-plus pledged delegate lead and even has the lead if you factor in superdelegates. Here’s our math: The NBC News election unit hard count stands at 1078 to 969. If you factor in the unallocated pledged delegates, our estimate rises to approximately 1128 to 1009 in Obama’s favor (margin of error +/- 5 delegates). Toss in the superdelegates and Obama’s lead is 1306 to 1270 (again +/- 5 delegates). What does this mean?

For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead — which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote — she’ll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama’s way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton’s percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available. And this is simply for her to regain the pledged delegate lead…

By Popular Vote
Obama 9,373,334 50%
Clinton 8,674,779 46%
Others 726,095 4%

Also interesting:
David Wilhelm, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager, is set to endorse Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) this afternoon

Associated Press:
Top Democrats, including some inside Hillary Clinton’s campaign, say many party leaders — the so-called superdelegates — won’t hesitate to ditch the former New York senator for Barack Obama if her political problems persist. Their loyalty to the first couple is built on shaky ground.

The fear inside the Clinton camp is that Obama will win Hawaii and Wisconsin next week and head into the March 4 contests for Ohio and Texas with a 10-race winning streak. Her poll numbers will drop in Texas and Ohio, Clinton aides fear, and party leaders will start hankering for an end to the fight.

Posted in Barack Obama, February 5th, Hillary Clinton, polling | No Comments »

Super Tuesday: Obama wins more states, delegates

Posted by Paul on February 6, 2008

Sorry I haven’t blogged in a long time. I’ve been working on the Obama campaign here in Delaware and in South Carolina and haven’t had the opportunity to return to my blog.

Here were some of last nights great results:

Alabama 3 99% 42% 56% 24 25
Alaska - 98% 25% 75% 4 9
American Samoa - 100% 57% 43% 2 1
Arizona - 93% 51% 42% 31 25
Arkansas - 95% 70% 27% 27 8
California - 99% 52% 42% 201 169
Colorado 27 99% 32% 67% 9 19
Connecticut - 100% 47% 51% 22 26
Delaware - 100% 43% 53% 6 9
Georgia 6 99% 31% 67% 25 56
Idaho - 100% 17% 79% 3 15
Illinois 8 97% 33% 65% 49 96
Kansas - 100% 26% 74% 9 23
Massachusetts - 100% 56% 41% 55 38
Minnesota - 82% 32% 67% 24 48
Missouri - 100% 48% 49% 36 36
New Jersey - 99% 54% 44% 59 48
New Mexico 1 98% 49% 48% 13 12
New York - 99% 57% 40% 139 93
North Dakota - 100% 37% 61% 5 8
Oklahoma - 100% 55% 31% 24 14
Tennessee 2 100% 54% 41% 38 28
Utah - 99% 39% 57% 9 14
Super Tuesday Total 47 - - - 814 820
Previously Pledged Delegates 48 63
Total Pledged Delegates 862 883

Barack Obama maintained his delegate lead over Senator Clinton by picking up smaller states by significant margins. He also won Illinois in a lopsided victory, effectively canceling out Clinton’s win in New York (which was only a 57-40 win compared with almost-delegate equal Illinois, 33-65).

Obama’s strategy is obviously to target smaller caucus states. By winning in places where enthusiasm and ground organization is a measure of success, Barack Obama has put together a coalition of winning demographics that can offset the Republicans next November.

He also leads Sen. Clinton in states won. Last night he won 13-9.

Outstanding performance by someone who was written off not even two months ago.

Posted in Barack Obama, Democratic / Republican nomination, February 5th, Hillary Clinton | No Comments »