I feel like the term hasn’t been fairly applied this political season. In January when Obama won Iowa, he had the mo… when Clinton won NH a few days later she had the mo briefly. Then things faded, Nevada didn’t matter and South Carolina pushed Obama into Super Tuesday… We kind of entered Feb. 5 feeling as though each candidate had an equal record: 2 Wins- 2 Losses.

Then momentum kicked in. After big victories on Feb. 5, Obama continued to win states across the country. Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland, DC, the Virgin Islands, and last night… Wisconsin and Hawaii.

What sucked for Hillary about Wisconsin is that it was a state tailor made for her to win. A bunch of beer drinking, cheese eating, average Americans who like to kick the tire, lift the hood and talk about the issues that are important to them. A state which isn’t diverse. All along we’ve been told by the Clintons that ‘oh, well he only won the south because they’re all black’, and ‘oh it’s a caucus state…”

Well not Wisconsin. The voters were middle class, middle of the road Democrats, and the end result was a decisive 58-41 win. According to exit polls:

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-4
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-3
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

And now lets look forward to Texas. Here is what Momentum looks like. Obama was 20 points down in the state just a month ago. Now, it looks something like this:
CNN/Opinion Research, Feb. 19, 2008
Clinton 50%
Obama 48%
MoE +/- 4%

SurveyUSA, Feb. 18, 2008
Clinton 50%
Obama 45%

American Research Group, Feb. 17, 2008
Obama 48%
Clinton 42%

I feel like the term hasn’t been fairly applied this political season. In January when Obama won Iowa, he had the mo… when Clinton won NH a few days later she had the mo briefly. Then things faded, Nevada didn’t matter and South Carolina pushed Obama into Super Tuesday… We kind of entered Feb. 5 feeling as though each candidate had an equal record: 2 Wins- 2 Losses.

Then momentum kicked in. After big victories on Feb. 5, Obama continued to win states across the country. Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland, DC, the Virgin Islands, and last night… Wisconsin and Hawaii.

What sucked for Hillary about Wisconsin is that it was a state tailor made for her to win. A bunch of beer drinking, cheese eating, average Americans who like to kick the tire, lift the hood and talk about the issues that are important to them. A state which isn’t diverse. All along we’ve been told by the Clintons that ‘oh, well he only won the south because they’re all black’, and ‘oh it’s a caucus state…”

Well not Wisconsin. The voters were middle class, middle of the road Democrats, and the end result was a decisive 58-41 win. According to exit polls:

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-4
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-3
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

And now lets look forward to Texas. Here is what Momentum looks like. Obama was 20 points down in the state just a month ago. Now, it looks something like this:
CNN/Opinion Research, Feb. 19, 2008
Clinton 50%
Obama 48%
MoE +/- 4%

SurveyUSA, Feb. 18, 2008
Clinton 50%
Obama 45%

American Research Group, Feb. 17, 2008
Obama 48%
Clinton 42%

Hillary Clinton’s website currently says, “Keep the momentum going!” Her 3% victory gives her campaign the right to claim that she’s building momentum. But is it?

I would say (as once released in a memo by Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn following Obama’s Iowa victory) “Where’s the bounce?” Where is Hillary’s bounce after winning New Hampshire?

Barack Obama was endorsed by the Nevada SEIU and the major Culinary Workers Union that represents over 60,000 union members. Next Saturday, they will surely be a force in Nevada’s democratic primary. As it stands, they’re one of the major political aparatuses in the state of Nevada, and with their ground support working in conjunction with Obama’s all ready impressive Nevada field operation, I see a serious race building up in the nation’s first western caucus.

And today Obama was endorsed by former Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). A huge endorsement that lends the Obama campaign the support of more establishment Democrats. Adding to Kerry was the endorsement of South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson, and Rep. George Miller of California. Says MSNBC’s Chuck Todd:

California congressman George Miller (D) is also backing Obama’s presidential campaign. This is perhaps the closest thing to getting a Nancy Pelosi endorsement as you can come without actually getting it. Miller is incredibly close with her politically. He wouldn’t be doing this without her consent of sorts.

Tons of endorsements following his New Hampshire loss: unions, senators and a representative with a close connection to the Speaker of the House. But where are Hillary’s endorsements? Where’s her bounce?

Certainly not in the fund raising battle. In the first 8 days of this month, Obama raised $8 million dollars compared with Hillary’s $3 million. The morning after his loss in New Hampshire, he received $500,000 in contributions online.

And lets be honest, no one in the press wants to see Hillary win. No one wants to report that the establishment candidate trumped the little guy. It’s no wonder they hyped the polls and coverage in the days leading up to New Hampshire… it’s just not a good story.

And in the realm of poll numbers- traditionally after a victory in an early state, your candidate makes gains. Hillary’s win may have slowed Obama’s momentum, but it certainly has not killed it. He is still leading by wide margins in South Carolina and his field operation in Nevada is growing stronger. (Still no polls out of Nevada yet).

Insider Advantage, Jan. 9, 2007
Obama 40%
Clinton 33%

Rasmussen, Jan. 9, 2007
Obama 42%
Clinton 30%

Honestly, Hillary will have to destroy him with win after win to kill his momentum. She can claim she has it, but in reality, she has neither the poll numbers, nor the endorsements, nor the finances to demonstrate it. Obama is a runaway train in the Democratic party; he’s emblematic of a movement and I don’t know if the Clinton’s can stop it.

I guess we’ll see.